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ASTANA FORUM

EXCLUSIV. Michael Binyon, The Times: GERMANIA are responsabilitatea de ajuta tarile lipsite de competitivitate. Cum vad europenii de azi mostenirea lui Monnet

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Dan Carbunaru, corespondenta din Astanamichael binyon

Era corespondent THE TIMES la Moscova pe cand inca nu ma nascusem. A relatat, ca jurnalist, in timpul Razboiului Rece, din URSS, Washington si din Bruxelles. A trait, ca jurnalist, caderea  Cortinei de Fier. A vazut, dupa 89, cum visul crescut la Bruxelles cuprinde Estul Europei.   Am avut sansa de a vorbi cu el , la cea de-a sasea editie a Astana Economic Forum. Cu o cariera de 40 de ani la una dintre cele mai respectate redactii din lume, Michael Binyon este, astazi, o parte vie a istoriei Europei. Cu amabilitatea unui lord englez si sinceritatea unui analist in cunostinta de cauza, a acceptat sa acorde un interviu, in exclusivitate, pentru caleaeuropeana.ro:

Calea Europeana:  Va multumesc pentru bunavointa de a ne acorda acest interviu, reprezentati o mare parte a jurnalimului ca istorie si poate cunoasteti mai bine dect oricine altcineva cum s-a dezvoltat Europa de Est. cum vedeti pasii pe care i-a facut Europa in ultimii 50 de ani?

Michael Binyon: Este o intrebare intr-adevar interesanta pentru ca am vazut Europa in diversele ei stadii. Am fost corespondent la Bruxelles in 1988 si 1989, iar cele mai multe schimbari au avut loc atunci, iar eu le-am vazut din punctul de vedere al Europei de Vest, atat economic, cat si politic, iar asta a fost extraordinar. De asemenea, am vazut cum erau lucrurile in Europa de Est deoarece am fost corespondent in Moscova timp de 5 ani, pe vremea comunismului, a lui Brejnev, intre ’77 si ’82. Asa ca am stiut cat de departe este Europa de Est de acel nivel de libertate, autoritate, experienta si know-how care in Europa de Vest erau luate deja drept bun garantat.  Cred ca intregul continent a parcurs un drum lung. Este unirea dintre doua culturi, sau a doua parti de continent care au fost separate fortat de catre Al Doilea Razboi Mondial si acum persoanele mai tinere, il considera mai mult sau mai putin un drept garantat faptul ca Europa este un continent cu un scop comun, cu un ideal comun de prosperitate si fericire. Asta in timp ce acum 30 de ani erau doua continente: Europa de Est si Europa de Vest.

Calea Europeana:  Este acesta un drum cu un singur sens? Sunt voci care spun ca nu este un proces ireversibil si ca prosperitatea in Europa poate fi afectata, iar noi europenii trebuie sa acordam mai mult atentie acestei prosperitati si paci.

Michael Binyon: Cred ca este un mare pericol, pentru ca in cazul in care prosperitatea “ ramane blocata”, daca europenii nu pot rezolva problema monedei unice, daca somajul si masurile de asuteritate creeaza nemultumire sociala, in special somajul in randu tinerilor, vom vedea pericolul asupra stabilitatii si prosperitatii si asupra democratiei pe care am luat-o drept garantata in Europa de Vest. Uitati-va la ce se intampla in Grecia, spre exemplu, puteti vedea cresterea rapida a Golden Dawn, un fel de partid fascist de extrema dreapta, cu tot felul de idei totalitare. Vedeti foarte multe furie in randul tinerilor din Spania, Franta si alte locuri unde exista o rata ridicata a somajului in randul tinerilor si o dezamagire privind conducerea politica a Europei de Vest. Asta s-ar putea intampla in Est sau In Vest, depinde de faptul daca situatia economica va da semne de imbunatatire sau daca perspectivele pe termen lung vor fi sumbre. Cred ca liderii europeni trebuie sa faca mai multe eforturi de a intelege pericolele si sa se asigure ca nu duc la instabilitate politica.

Calea Europeana:   Ati vorbit despre Razboiul Rece ce a divizat Europa. Acum, criza economica pare sa imparta din nou Europa, intre nord si sud.

Michael Binyon: Este foarte adevarat ca sudul a fost intotdeauna partea mai saraca a Europei. Din punct de vedere economic, situatia a fost mult mai putin favorabila decat a fost pentru Scandinavia sau Germania. Ei au avut o rata ridicata de crestere economica aproape artificiala. Dupa ce UE s-a format, multe dintre tarile sudice au intrat in Uniune cu oportunitati extraordinare de bani ieftini, investitii si posibilitatea de a si le extinde. Din pacate, nu au luat niciuna dintre masurile de infrastructura care trebuia luate si nu au facut reformele politice de care era nevoie. De exemplu, in reducerea birocratiei, in lupta impotriva coruptiei, unde prosperitatea a mascat faptul ca starea de fapt  nu functiona foarte bine iar acum vedem ca liderii din multe dintre tarile din sus nu sunt suficient de puternici pentru a lua masurile necesare. Spre exemplu, in Grecia este cunoscut faptul ca pentru o perioada lunga de timp a avut loc “nepotismul” in numirea functionarilor publici. Oamenii primeau locul de munca pentru ca unchiul lor sau un verisor lucra in sistemul public. Acesta nu era un mod in care sa conduci o democratie civila. Iar acele reforme trebuiau facute, insa nu a fost asa. Cand vin provocarile economice, sistemul politic de conducere din Europa de Sud, din pacate, nu este suficient de robust pentru a putea gasi raspunsurile. Europa de Nord, in mod special locuri precum Scandinavia care se bucura de stabilitate politica si prospera sunt intr-o pozitie mult mai buna de a face fata acestor provocari.

Calea Europeana:    Credeti ca urmatorul pas, pentru ca am auzit foarte multe persoane spunand asta la Forumul Economic de la Astana, este acela ca Germania sa ia masuri? Statele din sud au inceput, chiar si Franta, sa puna presiune asupra Germaniei. Cat timp credeti ca va rezista Germania presiunilor si care va fi raspunsul dat?

Michael Binyon:  Cred ca germanii ar fi putin suparati daca ar auzi aceste apeluri de a face mai mult, pentru ca germanii spun “ uita-te la sumele de bani deja investite in Europa de Sud, uite cat de mult au platit germanii pentru Grecia. Si exista un sentiment de inteles printre alegatorii germani de rand. “ De ce trebuie grecii sa se pensioneze la o varsta mai redusa, de ce trebuie sa aiba vacante asa de lungi si de ce ar trebui contribuabilii germani sa plateasca pentru asta? Daca grecii vor sa traiasca mai bine, sa munceasca mai mult” – acesta este punctul lor de vedere.

Pe de alta parte, este perfect adevarat ca Germania a avut cel mai mare succes si cea mai mare prosperitate decat toate celelalte state de la crearea zonei euro. Si prin euro, prin definitie, inseana ca membrii mai slabi de pe piata vor reprezenta piata usoara pentru membrii mai puternici. Asadar prosperitatea germana este rezultatul faptului ca au avut acces la pietele sud-europene si, intr-o oarecare masura, au exploatatat aceasta prosperitate pentru nevoile proprii. Asadar, au o responsabilitate de a ajuta acele tari ce au suferit ca urmare a lipsei lor de competitivitate. Eu cred ca daca germanii vor in continuare piata unica, trebuie sa plateasca mai mult pentru ea, in sensul de transferuri, probabil permanente, de bani catre tarile mai sarace.

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Calea Europeana:  Credeti ca in viitori 50 de ani, ne vom mai uita cu acelasi respect catre personalitati precum Jean Monnet sau Robert Schuman, parintii proiectului european? Daca ne uitam la liderii actualI, Rompuy, Angela Merkel, Hollande, Sarkozy, va fi nivelul lor politic, ca viziune, la fel ca cel al liderilor din acea vreme?

Michael Binyon:  Nu cred ca mai este aceeasi urgenta de a crea o Uniune Europeana pentru ca generatia lui Monnet a fost generatia care a trait in timpul celui de-al Doilea Razboi Mondial. Europa a fost devastata de astfel de conflicte si de lupte, iar asta nu a ramas in memoria publicului larg, drept rezultat vedem persoane care iau drept garantata unitatea europeana. Nu mai vad aceasta ca pe o misiune mareata de a aduce Europa impreuna, nu mai este aceeasi pasiune atasata ideii de unitate, astfel oamenii se simt mai atasati de tarile lor de origine.

Simt ca sunt parte a Europei, dar in mod egal, simt ca ceea ce conteaza este ce face guvernul si cum le raspunde acesta cerintelor, sa spunem in Franta, sau Olanda, sau in orice alta tara. Olanda este un exemplu foarte bun pentru ca a fost una dintre tarile cele mai “europene”, unul dintre membrii fondatori ai pietei comune, iar acum se observa o schimbare extraordinara in mentalitate – o multime de olandezi sunt suparati pe modul in care guvernul lor a gestionat situatii, de pilda cea a imigrantilor si unde exista un resentiment fata de puterea centrala din Bruxelles. Eu consider ca liderii europeni de azi si liderii nationali trebuie sa lucreze din greu pentru a mentine entuziasmul fata de idealul european.

Michael Roger Binyon este jurnalist englez si corespondent strain eminent, cunoscut pentru perioada in care transmis corespondente din Moscova, pentru publicatia The Times  unde activeaza si in prezent , precum si pentru corespondentele din Berlin, Washington si Orientul Mijlociu. 

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ASTANA FORUM

Svyatoslav Anatolyevich Timashev. Collective Nobel Peace Prize 2007 – Honored Scientist of the Russian Federation

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Svyatoslav A. Timashev is a member of the Interstate Council on the issue of “heavy reliability pipelines”, a member of the Scientific Council and the Dissertation Council, the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME), the editorial boards of domestic and foreign journals and a founding member of the International Association for design reliability and safety.

sSvyatoslav A. Timashev, a Russian citizen, was awarded a collective Nobel Peace Prize for developing methods of CO2 sequestration from the earth’s atmosphere and its disposal, together with a group of scientists of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, who together formed the International Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Department of Environmental Protection in 2007.

For his achievements, Svyatoslav Anatolyevich was awarded the VSNTO (All-Soviet Union Council of Technical Society) (1969), the medal “For Valorous Labour” (1970), the Expert Public Education Badge (1984), a COMADEM Magazine prize for the best publication in 2000, and was dubbed Knight of Justice – Commander of the Sovereign Order of the Orthodox Hospitaller Knights of St. John of Jerusalem.

S.A. Timashev shaped a new direction in the theory of reliability of large mechanical systems, solved the problem of optimization of the critical systems operation in multi-level governance class. He is the holder of nine copyright patents and author of more than 250 publications, including 19 monographs.

Svyatoslav Anatolyevich created software systems for the optimal management of the operation of oil and gas pipelines, three generations of industrial electronic systems of vibration protection, vibration diagnostics, tribodiagnostics and monitoring of energy machinery and equipment and is the founder of a new section in the theory of reliability monitoring.

He developed the scientific bases of the theory and a fundamentally new method for optimizing the operation of a complex object by the criteria of reliability and safety, as problems of multilevel governance of stochastic processes of degradation and recovery. These systems are used successfully in the Russian oil and gas industry, aviation, heavy engineering, metallurgy and other industries, as well as in university educational laboratories.

All these works have received wide domestic and international recognition, as evidenced by the election of S.A. Timashev as a member of the RF Academy of Quality Problems, a member of the Washington Academy of Sciences (USA) and the Fulbright Academy of Science and Technology (USA).

On July 26 the laureate S.A. Timashev celebrates his 79th birthday and the 58th anniversary of the start of science teaching career. He was born in Harbin, northeastern China, one of the main transit points for trade with Russia. He graduated with distinction from the Ural Federal University (formerly the Ural Polytechnic Institute).

From 1987 to the present time Professor Timashev has been the head of the Reliability Laboratory of the Engineering Complex Problem Division at IMET UNC AN SSSR.  He is also Director and Academic Advisor at the Science and Engineering Center “Reliability and service life of large systems of machines” at UNC AN SSSR.

 

 

 

 

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ASTANA FORUM

VIDEO Astana Economic Forum. Interview with Eric Maskin: Kazakhstan can be a force for modernization in the Eurasian region

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Interview taken by Razvan Buzatu, from www.caleaeuropeana.ro, with Professor Eric Maskin, PhD, Nobel Laureate for Economics, Adams University Professor at Harvard University.

He is renown at international level for laying the foundation of mechanism design theory. During his career, he contributed to game theory, contract theory, social choice theory, political economy as well as other areas of economics.  

maskin caleaeuropeana

VIDEO:

Razvan Buzatu: Professor Maskin, thank you very much for accepting this discussion for Calea Europeana. First of all: why Astana?

Eric Maskin: Well Astana is now holding one of the big economic forums in the world so it’s a natural place for people who are interested in issues of our time to meet. So, I’m glad to be one of the many participants.

RB: Well, Astana these three or four days is becoming the center of the world, right, and speaking about economics and how the world works at this moment, how do you see Kazakhstan involved in the global economy?

EM: Kazakhstan has an interesting position economically and geographically. It’s close enough to Europe so that it has close ties there, but it’s also close to the Far East and given its pivotal location we can expect great things from Kazakhstan in the future.

RB: Do you think that it can play a regional role in the Eurasian region?

EM: I hope it does. Kazakhstan seems to be forward looking, progressive country and I think it can be a force for modernization in the Eurasian region.

RB: Professor Maskin you’ve designed a well known design mechanism theory, and I was wondering if you can share with us a little bit of your thoughts on how can design mechanism theory, involving also Kazakhstan, can have positive implications on the European Union economy and Eurasian economy.

EM: Well, mechanism design theory is all about how do you create the institutions for aligning incentives. Of course, each country has its own goals which are not necessarily exactly in alignment with other countries’ goals and it is the function of international institutions to reconcile possible conflicts, this could be done through international organizations, through treaties, through political unification, but mechanism design teaches us that is not enough to, say, write a treaty, say, to promote trade, but the treaty has to be written with care to make sure that all the countries who are going to be signing this treaty actually benefit from it and that may involve a series of concessions on both sides, concessions about giving something up but the benefits from conceding is that now you have an international institution which enables you to take more from other countries.

RB: Very interesting, I was talking a little bit earlier with the Deputy Director General of the World Trade Organization, and he said that the new Bali Package that they established in December last year was a negotiation and was a break through, it was basically a new step forward for the WTO in terms of negotiating between India and China and also Cuba and USA, and also USA and India, so they reached to some sort of an agreement, some sort of compromise so that they can benefit economically; in this sense it resembles a lot with the design mechanism theory.

EM: It does in deed and in fact I think that the principles from the theory have now permeated people’s conciseness enough so that when these treaties are hammered out mechanism design theory plays a role.

RB: I will go now to the other side of the world: I believe you know very well what happened in Ukraine at the end of last year and the begging of this year. How do you see mechanism design theory, using mechanism design theory, in establishing a balance in the actors that are involved and are interested in what the path of Ukraine will be in the future.

EM: That’s a very difficult question, if I knew how to solve the problem of Ukraine I would be able to perform miracles so I don’t have any magic bullets for solving the Ukraine problem. All I can say is that we know from theory that the answer to conflicts is not typically the way of isolation and I would be worried if as a result of the tension in the Ukraine, if Russia for example became more isolated from the rest of the world and from Europe in particular to the extent that the countries continue to communicate with one another, continue to trade with one another, continue to cooperate with one another, that’s the way that the international tensions are resolved. Breaking of communication, breaking of trade I’m afraid that’s the risk of heightening tensions even further so I very much hope that the isolation doesn’t occur.

RB: Thank you very much. The theory is that the trade, at the trade level, in the Ukraine nothing has stopped but at the political level there are tensions. How do you see these things going hand in hand because some of them said “listen, it’s a real crisis” and at the trade level they say “we know it’s a crisis but we are still functioning”.

maskin2EM: “still functioning” for the time being. I think that unless they improve politically there is bound to be an economic cost in a longer term. Eventually, there can be lags either way. Economics lead politics or the other way around but not indefinitely, ultimately the two go together.

RB: Can we use the game theory and the Nash equilibrium with your theory, integrated? Is that possible?

EM: Well in fact, my theory, mechanism design, is part of game theory and uses game theoretic tools like Nash equilibrium as part of its analysis.

RB: And do you think they should be used integrated?

EM: Absolutely!

RB: How do you think we can do that?

EM: How can we apply them to…

RB: a certain event around the world, any kind of event?

RB: Use the 3 theories integrated to find a possible solution, not the solution, to an event in the world.

EM: Well, the first thing is to try to make precise what the goals of each of the parties are, but to recognize that there will always be some uncertainty about that. In games theoretic term these are games of incomplete information “I may know my goals, but I will never know your goals completely so I have to recognize that I’m operating in a situation of uncertainty. But game theory has developed tools to study interactions under uncertainty. On top of that, one way of resolving uncertainty is through a mechanism which is just an institution for international interaction. So that I think is the integration that you are calling for. Looking at the initial situation which involves a conflict of interests which is not completely understood because of the incomplete information, but layering on top of that an international mechanism, a treaty, for example or a trade agreement which brings the various parties closer together in agreement in their interests.

RB: One last question if I may? Do you see the European Union as a global actor? Like becoming the United States of Europe?

EM: I hope it will move in that direction. The European Union has successfully integrated some of its economic policy, namely the monetary side, if it can work on its other side of economic policy, namely the fiscal policy, and integrate that, I think it has a chance of having a comparable force with the USA on the global scene, but without that kind of fiscal integration I’m afraid that it will never quite have its act together.

RB: Well professor Maskin, thank you very much for taking the time to talk to us. I’m Razvan Buzatu, for Calea Europeana, from Astana.

 

 

 

 

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ASTANA FORUM

“Journalism education: from theory to practice” – I International Summit of Journalism “G-Global: World of the XXI century”

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In the course of the VII Astana Economic Forum and the II World Anti-Crisis Conference “Eurasian Economic Club of Scientists” Association and “Success K” media agencyorganized a panel session on “Journalism education: from theory to practice” as part of the I International Summit of Journalism “G-Global: World of the XXI century”.

rp_Astana_symbol_-300x224.jpgThe session discussed the issues of how to organize cooperation between journalists and experts in other fields such as IT, statistics, graphic and interactive design in education, and how to transfer this experience in journalism.

The event was attended by Co-Director of National Security Journalism Initiative & Medill School of Journalism, Northwestern University, Timothy McNulty; Director General of the Channel 7, Aziza Shuzeeva; Professor, Head of the Media Communication and history of Kazakhstan Department,Aygul Niyazgulova; Managing editor of Caspian Publishing House, Charles Van Der Liu; Director of the media school at “Kazmedia center”, Dana Rysmuhamedova; Editor-in-chief, “Finanz und Wirtschaft”, Martin Gollmer; Director of Radio “Astana”,Gulmira Karakozov. The session was moderated by the Chairman of the Board RTRC “Kazakhstan” Nurjan Mukhamedzhanova.

Most people think that it is not necessary to get a special education to become a journalist. As in case that no one will be able to do the surgery except a surgeon, no one can know better the professional tricks of historian, economist, lawyer and journalist, – shared an opinion Gulmira Karakozov, Director of Radio “Astana”, in the course of the session. Therefore, I strongly against this majority opinion. In 2005, Kazakhstan had 19 high school faculties, branches and departments that prepared professionals in journalism, and half of them belonged to the philological and historical faculties. I would like to say, the capability of journalists who were trained by linguists or historians, and taught in accordance with tutorials on journalism will not be high. This is a stumbling block in the preparation of professional journalists. Students must be  taught by a person who has experience practicing in the field of journalism, – she stressed.

Recall, a purpose of the I International Summit of Journalism “G-Global: World of the XXI century” was creation of an information platform for interaction of economics, global journalism and latest technologies.

First, in Astana well-known media persons, bright bloggers, leaders and representatives of the world’s largest media holdings, website developers, website editors, newspapers and magazines  editors, scientists, who demonstrate their achievements in the media, media tools and technologies, tried and tested skills in building information business and economic knowledge in the field of journalism brought together.

 

 

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