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EXCLUSIV. Sfatul pentru ROMÂNIA al unui laureat al premiului NOBEL pentru ECONOMIE: IEȘIȚI DIN UE

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Interviu realizat de Dan Carbunaru, corespondenta de la VI Astana Economic Forum

Romania ar trebui sa iasa din UE, este sfatul dat de Sir James Mirrlees, laureat al Premiului Nobel pentru Economie, intr-un interviu acordat in exclusivitate pentru caleaeuropeana.ro, in cadrul Forumului Economic Astana.

james_a_mirrleesRadacinile voastre sunt clatinate, iar acestea nu se pot repara, nu poti repara sursa de putere. Aceste conditii impuse de Germania reflecta dorinta de reducere a  cheltuielilor fiscale ale tarilor si de reducere cat mai mult posibil a sanselor de default, fara sa isi faca griji de alte probleme, precum somajul. Oamenii nu vad cu ochi buni rezultatele si vad ca acum este mai rau decat era inainte. Ceva trebuie facut, insa nu acum”, a declarat Mirrlees. Intrebat ce ar sfatui Romania sa faca in acest moment, savantul a raspuns: ”Te poti gandi cum sa schimbi lucrurile, dar e greu sa oferi un sfat, sunteti intr-o incurcatura destul de serioasa. Raspunsul radical ar fi iesirea din UE”.

”Cred ca este solutia care ar reduce  socul cel mai bine. Pentru ca sa devina posibil sa faci lucruri precum construirea unor sosele, spre exemplu, sau sa te descurci cu mai putini bani, pentru ca ai nevoie de bani ca sa faci ceva si nu poti face nimic pentru ca toate rezervele de bani sunt controlate de alte banci. Asa ca acesta este varianta mai buna de ajustare a costului fortei de munca. Se va devaloriza mai mult decat prin taierile date de Guvern, iar asa nu mai trebuie taiate salariile pentru functionarii publici. Asa sunteti si capabili sa va extindeti si sa cresteti ocuparea fortei de munca. Dar imi este greu sa ma gandesc la alte solutii cat timp sunteti in “jacheta stramta” a sistemului euro”, mai spune Mirrlees.

sursa – caleaeuropeana.ro

 

Sir James Mirrlees este un economist britanic, laureat al Premiului Nobel pentru economie (1996). A fost numit cavaler de catre regina Marii Britanii in 1998. In timpul in care a studiat la Oxford, acesta a publicat lucrari pe teme economice pentru care a primit Premiul Nobel. El s-a axat in lucrarile sale pe situatii in care informatiile economice erau incomplete sau asimetrice, determinand masura in care acestea ar trebui sa afecteze rata optima de economisire. Printre alte rezultate, ei au demonstrat principiile “hazardul moral” si “pragul optim alimpozitarii”. Metodologia, a fost, de atunci, standardul in domeniu.

 

Cititi, integral interviul pentru caleaeuropeana.ro:

 

I: Voiam sa va pun cateva intrebari cu privire la activitatea dvs. stiintifica, care este realizarea cu care va mandriti cel mai mult?

James Mirrlees: Raspunsul evident este ca am am reusit sa rezolv problemele privind impozitarea optima a veniturilor, gasirea unei tehnici numerice prin care sa poti calcula impozitul pe venit astfel incata sa aiba sens, sa devina un criteriu pentru ceva realist ce se poate dezvolta in economie. Am fost incantat de asta, dar poate nu cel mai incantat. Imi amintesc o lucrare relativ minora pe care am scris-o cu alti doi colegi despre economie, despre marimea acesteia si despre cum asta poate influenta planificarea investitiilor. Era foarte usor sa obtii raspunsul gresit din cauza conditiilor evidente si a multiplelor solutii si am gasit problema, in final, dar a fost putin dificil. Asa ca am fost foarte multumi de asta, pentru ca a fost o problema mai grea, iar mai apoi de impozitul pe venit pentru ca este o problema economica de amploare.

I: Sunteti cunoscut pentru lucrarile dvs privind impozitarea din sectorul public si are loc o dezbatere continua privind evaziunea fiscala, cum te poti asigura ca toata lumea plateste. Sistemele  de impozitare sunt construite in asa fel incat poate oamenii simt nevoia de a cauta o modalitate de a le evita. Cum vedeti dvs. aceasta discutie? Toata lumea trebuie sa isi plateasca taxele? Care sunt posibilele metode de a directiona banii din evaziune catre stat?

James Mirrlees: Oamenii cand spun ca vor o taxa de impozitare mai mica, spun de fapt ca vor sa dea mai putini bani statului. Asta nu are niciun sens, decat daca arati ca nu sunt necesare aceste taxari fiscale. Impozitarea nu are nimic de a face cu oamenii care vor sa scape de impozitare. Nu exista un motiv anume pentru care o cota unica de impozitare ar reduce cumva rata evaziunii si ar face ca prin minune sa creasca veniturile obtinute de stat. Nu neg ca exista un adevar in aceste spuse dar pornirea de la taxe foarte ridicate si apoi reducerea lor treptata poate avea loc. E posibil sa se fi intamplat in America unde au trecut de la cresterea taxelor peste noapte la scaderea brusca a acestora. Un alt exemplu e situatia din Franta unde au anuntat o taxare de 70% ce duce plecarea din tara a unor nume mari. Intr-un fel , ai putea spune ca incurajeaza evaziunea fiscala, se poate spune ca emigreaza din cauza impozitelor, sau pot decide sa se retraga de pe piata, ceea ce e un lucru total diferit. Banii si profitul sunt dimensiuni reale, iar ce este cel mai important este evaziunea reala. Pe de alta parte, desigur, o mare parte din evaziune ar ajunge spre Elvetia, iar alte tari ar invinovati-o.

I: Care credeti ca este problema majora de acum? Faptul ca guvernele nationale incearca sa taxeze mai mult pentru a obtine mai multi bani din impozitare? Sau faptul ca, uneori, nu administreaza corect banii? Romania, spre exemplu, se lupta cu evaziunea fiscala zilnic, insa rezultatele nu sunt foarte evidente.

James Mirrlees: Dvs. vorbiti despre eficienta cheltuielilor guvernamentale: nu in monitorizarea platitorilor de taxe, ci mai degraba in construirea unui spital, spre exemplu. Cateodata am impresia ca oamenii sunt prea duri cu guvernele lor, deoarece acestea se confrunta cu domenii in care este foarte greu sa fii eficient. Guvernul face ceva, dar pentru a obtine profit si sa reduca si costurile, e foarte greu. Guvernul trebuie sa ofere la sfarsit un produs, e ca un fel de targ, insa diferit de la tara la tara. Avem un birou de audit in UE care se uita catre anumite cheltuieli ale guvernelor pentru a evalua ce au facut si fac o treaba buna, cum putini oameni fac. In Europa, spre exemplu, au observat ca auditorii, contabilii nu sunt apreciati pentru ca se spune ca sunt multe feluri in care banii pot fi folositi prost, ca oamenii ii pacalesc. Parlamentul nu poate face nimic in legatura cu asta. Iar asta nu este un exemplu bun  – faptul ca ai un birou de audit nu aduce neaparat si imbunatatiri. Dar avem un efect pe termen lung, unul din efectele pentru care unele tari din Europa sunt mai putin populare datorita dovezilor de cheltuieli ineficiente si coruptie. Germanii se gandesc cum sa forteze guvernele sa reduca cheltuielile si sa creasca fiscalitatea, chiar si in aceste vremuri. Iar acum inteleg, folosesc argumentul ineficientei, se uita la Romania sau la Grecia si spun ca au prea multi functionari publici, asa ca poate e o idee buna sa scapam de ce nu este necesar. Uitati-va acum la ratele somajului.

I: In Romania, la inceputul crizei, guvernul roman a decis sa taie salariile cu 25%, iar apoi sa creasca TVA-ul cu 5% in aceeasi perioada. Guvernul s-a schimbat intre timp si acum a taiat din banii de stat alocati investitiilor deoarece au nevoie de banii din buget pentru a creste salariile. Situatia nu arata bine, asteptam fonduri europene, dar si acelea sunt absorbite greu.

James Mirrlees: Radacinile voastre sunt clatinate, iar acestea nu se pot repara, nu poti repara sursa de putere. Aceste conditii impuse de Germania reflecta dorinta de reducere a  cheltuielilor fiscale ale tarilor si de reducere cat mai mult posibil a sanselor de default, fara sa isi faca griji de alte probleme, precum somajul. Oamenii nu vad cu ochi buni rezultatele si vad ca acum este mai rau decat era inainte. Ceva trebuie facut, insa nu acum.

I: Ce ati sfatui Romania sa faca in acest moment?

James Mirrlees: Te poti gandi cum sa schimbi lucrurile, dar e greu sa oferi un sfat, sunteti intr-o incurcatura destul de serioasa. Raspunsul radical ar fi iesirea din UE.

I: Credeti ca acesta ar fi cel mai bun lucru pentru Romania acum?

James Mirrlees: Cred ca este solutia care ar reduce  socul cel mai bine. Pentru ca sa devina posibil sa faci lucruri precum construirea unor sosele, spre exemplu, sau sa te descurci cu mai putini bani, pentru ca ai nevoie de bani ca sa faci ceva si nu poti face nimic pentru ca toate rezervele de bani sunt controlate de alte banci. Asa ca acesta este varianta mai buna de ajustare a costului fortei de munca. Se va devaloriza mai mult decat prin taierile date de Guvern, iar asa nu mai trebuie taiate salariile pentru functionarii publici. Asa sunteti si capabili sa va extindeti si sa cresteti ocuparea fortei de munca. Dar imi este greu sa ma gandesc la alte solutii cat timp sunteti in “jacheta stramta” a sistemului euro.

I: Asta ar reprezenta o decizie politica la o problema economica?

James Mirrlees: Euro este o problema politica,da. Iar costul de a avea euro este unul considerabil.

I: Sunt tari care s-au confruntat cu problema de a parasi zona euro, cum este exemplul Greciei.

James Mirrlees: Nu putem pretinde ca asta rezolva in totalitate problemele aparute spre exemplu, din prabusirea pietei imobiliare din Spania, deficitul public al Greciei. Ma pot gandi la o solutie, Germania sa isi creasca inflatia si cheltuielile guvernamentale astfel incat pretul marfii germane sa creasca si sa plateasca mai mult pentru exporturi venite din Romania, sau Grecia.

 Continutul interviului nu poate fi reprodus fara mentionarea sursei.

 

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  1. Pingback: România ar trebui să iasă din UE « Cerul Albastru

  2. Pingback: Sfatul unui laureat al Premiului Nobel dat României: Ieșiți din UE | libertatea

  3. Pingback: Sfatul unui laureat al Premiului Nobel dat României: Ieșiți din UE | Gandul

  4. Pingback: EXCLUSIV. Sfatul pentru ROMANIA al unui laureat al premiului NOBEL pentru ECONOMIE: IESITI DIN UE | Efemeride

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ASTANA FORUM

Svyatoslav Anatolyevich Timashev. Collective Nobel Peace Prize 2007 – Honored Scientist of the Russian Federation

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Svyatoslav A. Timashev is a member of the Interstate Council on the issue of “heavy reliability pipelines”, a member of the Scientific Council and the Dissertation Council, the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME), the editorial boards of domestic and foreign journals and a founding member of the International Association for design reliability and safety.

sSvyatoslav A. Timashev, a Russian citizen, was awarded a collective Nobel Peace Prize for developing methods of CO2 sequestration from the earth’s atmosphere and its disposal, together with a group of scientists of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, who together formed the International Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Department of Environmental Protection in 2007.

For his achievements, Svyatoslav Anatolyevich was awarded the VSNTO (All-Soviet Union Council of Technical Society) (1969), the medal “For Valorous Labour” (1970), the Expert Public Education Badge (1984), a COMADEM Magazine prize for the best publication in 2000, and was dubbed Knight of Justice – Commander of the Sovereign Order of the Orthodox Hospitaller Knights of St. John of Jerusalem.

S.A. Timashev shaped a new direction in the theory of reliability of large mechanical systems, solved the problem of optimization of the critical systems operation in multi-level governance class. He is the holder of nine copyright patents and author of more than 250 publications, including 19 monographs.

Svyatoslav Anatolyevich created software systems for the optimal management of the operation of oil and gas pipelines, three generations of industrial electronic systems of vibration protection, vibration diagnostics, tribodiagnostics and monitoring of energy machinery and equipment and is the founder of a new section in the theory of reliability monitoring.

He developed the scientific bases of the theory and a fundamentally new method for optimizing the operation of a complex object by the criteria of reliability and safety, as problems of multilevel governance of stochastic processes of degradation and recovery. These systems are used successfully in the Russian oil and gas industry, aviation, heavy engineering, metallurgy and other industries, as well as in university educational laboratories.

All these works have received wide domestic and international recognition, as evidenced by the election of S.A. Timashev as a member of the RF Academy of Quality Problems, a member of the Washington Academy of Sciences (USA) and the Fulbright Academy of Science and Technology (USA).

On July 26 the laureate S.A. Timashev celebrates his 79th birthday and the 58th anniversary of the start of science teaching career. He was born in Harbin, northeastern China, one of the main transit points for trade with Russia. He graduated with distinction from the Ural Federal University (formerly the Ural Polytechnic Institute).

From 1987 to the present time Professor Timashev has been the head of the Reliability Laboratory of the Engineering Complex Problem Division at IMET UNC AN SSSR.  He is also Director and Academic Advisor at the Science and Engineering Center “Reliability and service life of large systems of machines” at UNC AN SSSR.

 

 

 

 

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ASTANA FORUM

VIDEO Astana Economic Forum. Interview with Eric Maskin: Kazakhstan can be a force for modernization in the Eurasian region

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Interview taken by Razvan Buzatu, from www.caleaeuropeana.ro, with Professor Eric Maskin, PhD, Nobel Laureate for Economics, Adams University Professor at Harvard University.

He is renown at international level for laying the foundation of mechanism design theory. During his career, he contributed to game theory, contract theory, social choice theory, political economy as well as other areas of economics.  

maskin caleaeuropeana

VIDEO:

Razvan Buzatu: Professor Maskin, thank you very much for accepting this discussion for Calea Europeana. First of all: why Astana?

Eric Maskin: Well Astana is now holding one of the big economic forums in the world so it’s a natural place for people who are interested in issues of our time to meet. So, I’m glad to be one of the many participants.

RB: Well, Astana these three or four days is becoming the center of the world, right, and speaking about economics and how the world works at this moment, how do you see Kazakhstan involved in the global economy?

EM: Kazakhstan has an interesting position economically and geographically. It’s close enough to Europe so that it has close ties there, but it’s also close to the Far East and given its pivotal location we can expect great things from Kazakhstan in the future.

RB: Do you think that it can play a regional role in the Eurasian region?

EM: I hope it does. Kazakhstan seems to be forward looking, progressive country and I think it can be a force for modernization in the Eurasian region.

RB: Professor Maskin you’ve designed a well known design mechanism theory, and I was wondering if you can share with us a little bit of your thoughts on how can design mechanism theory, involving also Kazakhstan, can have positive implications on the European Union economy and Eurasian economy.

EM: Well, mechanism design theory is all about how do you create the institutions for aligning incentives. Of course, each country has its own goals which are not necessarily exactly in alignment with other countries’ goals and it is the function of international institutions to reconcile possible conflicts, this could be done through international organizations, through treaties, through political unification, but mechanism design teaches us that is not enough to, say, write a treaty, say, to promote trade, but the treaty has to be written with care to make sure that all the countries who are going to be signing this treaty actually benefit from it and that may involve a series of concessions on both sides, concessions about giving something up but the benefits from conceding is that now you have an international institution which enables you to take more from other countries.

RB: Very interesting, I was talking a little bit earlier with the Deputy Director General of the World Trade Organization, and he said that the new Bali Package that they established in December last year was a negotiation and was a break through, it was basically a new step forward for the WTO in terms of negotiating between India and China and also Cuba and USA, and also USA and India, so they reached to some sort of an agreement, some sort of compromise so that they can benefit economically; in this sense it resembles a lot with the design mechanism theory.

EM: It does in deed and in fact I think that the principles from the theory have now permeated people’s conciseness enough so that when these treaties are hammered out mechanism design theory plays a role.

RB: I will go now to the other side of the world: I believe you know very well what happened in Ukraine at the end of last year and the begging of this year. How do you see mechanism design theory, using mechanism design theory, in establishing a balance in the actors that are involved and are interested in what the path of Ukraine will be in the future.

EM: That’s a very difficult question, if I knew how to solve the problem of Ukraine I would be able to perform miracles so I don’t have any magic bullets for solving the Ukraine problem. All I can say is that we know from theory that the answer to conflicts is not typically the way of isolation and I would be worried if as a result of the tension in the Ukraine, if Russia for example became more isolated from the rest of the world and from Europe in particular to the extent that the countries continue to communicate with one another, continue to trade with one another, continue to cooperate with one another, that’s the way that the international tensions are resolved. Breaking of communication, breaking of trade I’m afraid that’s the risk of heightening tensions even further so I very much hope that the isolation doesn’t occur.

RB: Thank you very much. The theory is that the trade, at the trade level, in the Ukraine nothing has stopped but at the political level there are tensions. How do you see these things going hand in hand because some of them said “listen, it’s a real crisis” and at the trade level they say “we know it’s a crisis but we are still functioning”.

maskin2EM: “still functioning” for the time being. I think that unless they improve politically there is bound to be an economic cost in a longer term. Eventually, there can be lags either way. Economics lead politics or the other way around but not indefinitely, ultimately the two go together.

RB: Can we use the game theory and the Nash equilibrium with your theory, integrated? Is that possible?

EM: Well in fact, my theory, mechanism design, is part of game theory and uses game theoretic tools like Nash equilibrium as part of its analysis.

RB: And do you think they should be used integrated?

EM: Absolutely!

RB: How do you think we can do that?

EM: How can we apply them to…

RB: a certain event around the world, any kind of event?

RB: Use the 3 theories integrated to find a possible solution, not the solution, to an event in the world.

EM: Well, the first thing is to try to make precise what the goals of each of the parties are, but to recognize that there will always be some uncertainty about that. In games theoretic term these are games of incomplete information “I may know my goals, but I will never know your goals completely so I have to recognize that I’m operating in a situation of uncertainty. But game theory has developed tools to study interactions under uncertainty. On top of that, one way of resolving uncertainty is through a mechanism which is just an institution for international interaction. So that I think is the integration that you are calling for. Looking at the initial situation which involves a conflict of interests which is not completely understood because of the incomplete information, but layering on top of that an international mechanism, a treaty, for example or a trade agreement which brings the various parties closer together in agreement in their interests.

RB: One last question if I may? Do you see the European Union as a global actor? Like becoming the United States of Europe?

EM: I hope it will move in that direction. The European Union has successfully integrated some of its economic policy, namely the monetary side, if it can work on its other side of economic policy, namely the fiscal policy, and integrate that, I think it has a chance of having a comparable force with the USA on the global scene, but without that kind of fiscal integration I’m afraid that it will never quite have its act together.

RB: Well professor Maskin, thank you very much for taking the time to talk to us. I’m Razvan Buzatu, for Calea Europeana, from Astana.

 

 

 

 

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ASTANA FORUM

“Journalism education: from theory to practice” – I International Summit of Journalism “G-Global: World of the XXI century”

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In the course of the VII Astana Economic Forum and the II World Anti-Crisis Conference “Eurasian Economic Club of Scientists” Association and “Success K” media agencyorganized a panel session on “Journalism education: from theory to practice” as part of the I International Summit of Journalism “G-Global: World of the XXI century”.

rp_Astana_symbol_-300x224.jpgThe session discussed the issues of how to organize cooperation between journalists and experts in other fields such as IT, statistics, graphic and interactive design in education, and how to transfer this experience in journalism.

The event was attended by Co-Director of National Security Journalism Initiative & Medill School of Journalism, Northwestern University, Timothy McNulty; Director General of the Channel 7, Aziza Shuzeeva; Professor, Head of the Media Communication and history of Kazakhstan Department,Aygul Niyazgulova; Managing editor of Caspian Publishing House, Charles Van Der Liu; Director of the media school at “Kazmedia center”, Dana Rysmuhamedova; Editor-in-chief, “Finanz und Wirtschaft”, Martin Gollmer; Director of Radio “Astana”,Gulmira Karakozov. The session was moderated by the Chairman of the Board RTRC “Kazakhstan” Nurjan Mukhamedzhanova.

Most people think that it is not necessary to get a special education to become a journalist. As in case that no one will be able to do the surgery except a surgeon, no one can know better the professional tricks of historian, economist, lawyer and journalist, – shared an opinion Gulmira Karakozov, Director of Radio “Astana”, in the course of the session. Therefore, I strongly against this majority opinion. In 2005, Kazakhstan had 19 high school faculties, branches and departments that prepared professionals in journalism, and half of them belonged to the philological and historical faculties. I would like to say, the capability of journalists who were trained by linguists or historians, and taught in accordance with tutorials on journalism will not be high. This is a stumbling block in the preparation of professional journalists. Students must be  taught by a person who has experience practicing in the field of journalism, – she stressed.

Recall, a purpose of the I International Summit of Journalism “G-Global: World of the XXI century” was creation of an information platform for interaction of economics, global journalism and latest technologies.

First, in Astana well-known media persons, bright bloggers, leaders and representatives of the world’s largest media holdings, website developers, website editors, newspapers and magazines  editors, scientists, who demonstrate their achievements in the media, media tools and technologies, tried and tested skills in building information business and economic knowledge in the field of journalism brought together.

 

 

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