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INTERVIU. AVERTISMENTUL lui Christopher Pissarides, laureat al Premiului NOBEL: Liderii europeni nu au viziuni pe termen lung. Ruptura dintre Germania și restul Europei este periculoasă

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Interviu realizat de Dan Carbunaru

Prezent la Forumul Economic de la Astana, editia a VI-a, Christopher Pissarides, laureat al Premiului Nobel pentru economie a oferit, joi, 23 mai 2013, un interviu pentru caleaeuropeana.ro. Principalele teme comentate au fost economia globala, rolul Chinei si al Europei la nivel global, situatia dificiala prin care trec Cipru si Italia, dar si solutiile care ar putea scoate Europa din criza.

Christopher Pissarides considera ca institutiile UE nu sunt eficiente si cere o supraveghere mai puternica a bancilor centrale si o coordonare fiscala mai stransa, cerand guvernelor sa aiba viziune in deciziile pe care le iau si sa priveasca Europa ca un intreg.

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I: In aceasta dimineata, la Tokyo, bursa de valori s-a prabusit, iar pietele europene au fost afectate din cauza Chinei. Ce s-a intamplat? Nu a fost mentionata nicio strategie de iesire, astfel incat situatia sa nu degenereze

Christopher Pissarides: Ideea principala este ca in economia mondiala exista inca incertitudine. Principalul motiv pentru incertitudine este Europa, cred ca europenii nu si-au rezolvat problemle. Oamenii se uita catre SUA pentru a veni cu un leadership al pietelor emergente precum China. Iar ma stirile usor negative venind dinspre aceste tari provoaca volatilitate pe pietele bursiere. Cred ca acest lucru va continua daca nu avem nu avem o ordine internationala. Ne bazam inca prea mult pe FMI si pe ce poate sa faca iar Europa nu pare sa aiba vointa politica de a rezolva acele probleme, astfel incat mici schimbari in zona de crestere economica a Chinei sa nu afecteze pietele internationale.

I: Sa nu afecteze?

Christopher Pissarides: Daca ne rezolvam problemele in cadrul european, cred ca nu vor mai fi afectate bursele internationale, deooarece SUA deja se afla pe drumul lor spre recuperare, care cred ca va fi robusta. Nu ar trebui sa fie o asa mar reactie la ce a declarat Bernanke (n.r. Presedintele FED, Ben Bernanke). Problema principala ramane Europa. Ne bazam prea mult pe cresterea din China in economia mondiala, ceea ce este foarte periculos avand in vedere ca este in crestere de ceva timp.

I: Deci Europa ar trebui sa fie mai independenta?

Christopher Pissarides: Da, ar trebui sa isi rezolve singura problemele.

I: Sunteti de acord cu cei care afirma ca nu problema actuala nu este una a datoriilor, ci este o criza politica?

Christopher Pissarides: Da, cred ca acesta este un simptom al problemelor politice pe care le avem in Europa, in absenta suficientor institutii necesare pentru a face zona monedei unice sa aiba succes si sa creasca. Avem nevoie de o supravghere sporita a bancilor centrale si de o mai stransa coordonare fiscala.

I: Problemele economice din Europa sunt din ce in ce mai prezente in  viata noastra, cu cat rata somajului este mai ridicata, in special in Europa de Sud. Cat timp considerati ca societatea va mai avea rabdare? Cu totii asteapta sa fie luate decizii importante.

Christopher Pissarides: Ati identificat cea mai grava problema cu care se confrunta Europa pe termen mediu, rata somajului atat de mare in tarile din sud. Pana acum, au avut foart multa rabdare asteptand progrese din partea institutiilor europene cae sa impinga economia si cresterea economica, dar acum tot prelungim amanarile. Cu cat sunt amanarile mai lungi, cu atat mai mare va fi riscul ca rabdarea sa se epuizeze. UE se va destrama singura, ceea ce este cel mai rau rezultat posibil, asa incat liderii europeni trebuie sa actioneze rapid in crearea de institutii care sunt necesare pentru ca economie Europei sa isi revina.

I: Problema este ca trebuie fim increzatori in aceste institutii, care momentan nu  sunt eficiente si ale caror decizii politice de pana acum nu ne-au scos din criza

Christopher Pissarides: Institutiile pe care le avem acum nu sunt eficiente pentru ca nu sunt suficiente, avem nevoi de un supraveghetor comun in euro, avem nevoie de obligatiuni comune, de o institutie care sa poate dizolva o banca europeana, trebuie perfectiona Mecanismul European de Stabilitate, toate aceste decizii au nevoie de politicieni carora sa le pese de UE ca un intreg, sau macar de zona euro ca un intreg ca o aditie tarilor lor, iar asta este ce ne lipseste in Europa. Si avem nevoie de asta. Daca nu vom face asta, riscam sa avem mai multi ani de recesiune, de o rata ridicata a somajului si de greve, demonstratii si tulburari sociale.

I: Ca efect, partidele de stanga au inceput sa castige tot mai multe alegeri in intreaga Europa. Ce se va intampla cu masurile curajoase de care vorbeati?

Christopher Pissarides: Asa este, ei nu iau aceste masuri curajoase. Spre exemplu, Franta nu a avut idei majore pentru Europa privita ca un intreg, poate in Franta politicienii iau decizii nationale benefice, dar si Europa are envoie de oameni care sa ia decizii, iar Franta a avut mari politicieni interesati de Europa ca tot unitar, impingand UE catre o cooperare mai stransa. Acum, politicienii , daca fac ceva, nu fac decat sa dezbine.

I: Ar putea fi nu o chestiune de luare a deciziilor, ci de lipsa de viziune din partea liderilor europeni?

Christopher Pissarides: Aceasta este cheia, de fapt. Nu au viziuni mai largi privind Europa, ce sa faca in continuare. Asadar, le lipseste curajul politic de a-si asuma costurile politice in tara lor si de a face ceva la nivel european. Vedem politicile pe care Germania le urmeaza, si se pare ca sunt populare printre germani, dar nicaieri in afara Germaniei, iar acest lucru adanceste ruptura dintre Germania si restul Europei, iar asta este periculos pentru viitorul Europei.

Despre bailoutul acordat Ciprului

Christopher Pissarides: Singura sursa de economii pe care Ciprul o avea au fost acele depozite in marile banci. Cei mai multi dintre depondenti erau aproape de pensie, sau deja pensionati, iar aceia erau banii lor. Brusc, au ramas doar cu cei 100.000 euro, restul fiindu-le luati pentru recapitalizarea bancilor, fara sa existe un sistem de compensatie, deci cum vor putea acesti oameni sa isi asigure consumul cand se vor afla la pensie? Economiile de o viata pe care le aveau pentru a-si asigura finantarea merg acum catre recapitalizarea bancilor, iar ei au ramas cu cei 10.000 €, nimic mai mult. Asadar, avem multe probleme sociale care se adaga la cele cauzate politicii economice defectuoase. Atunci cand bancile au profit, actionarii si managerii iau profitul si beneficiaza de pe urma lui, nu depondentii, dar atunci cand bancile se afla in pericol, depondentii trebuie sa plateasca. Asta descurajeaza oamenii sa investeasca pe viitor in sume mai mari de bani pentru ca stiu ca daca vremurile sunt bune, ei nu vor beneficia de asta, insa daca vremurile sunt rele, vor suferi.

I: Voiam sa va intreb si despre cariera dvs stiintifica. Sunteti unul dintre cei mai tineri laureati ai Premiului Nobel. Cu ce anume va mandriti cel mai tare din activitatea dvs stiintifica?

Christopher Pissarides: Cea mai mare preocupare din timpul carierei mele a fost rata ridicata a somajului, cum putem rezolva problema si am realizat ca atunci cand am inceput eu nu exista niciun fundament teoretic, un cadru care sa vizeze somajul sii sunt mandru de faptul ca acum majoritatea oamenilor din profesia mea folosesc acest cadru, pe care eu si cu colegii mei l-am dezvoltat. Am studiat somajul si am incercat sa venit cu politici eficiente de combatere a acestuia. Din pacate, politicile actuale nu urmaresc exact ce am spus noi ca se poate face. Insa daca ma intrebati de activitatea mea stiintifica, acesta ma face cel mai mandru- furnizarea acestui cadru foarte des folosit in rezolvarea problemelor somajului.

I: Poate fi utilizat si in situatia actuala?

Christopher Pissarides: Poate fi folosit in orice moment.

I: Cum s-a schimbat modul in care faceti cercetarea? Economia s-a dezvoltat foarte puternic si sunt voci care spun ca motivul pentru care ne-am pierdut este pentru ca ne uitam doar la cifre. Cum vedeti aceasta schimbare?

Christopher Pissarides: Schimbarea este buna in multe feluri pentru ca si cantitatea este importanta intr-o lume economica complicata. Atat in modelele de economiei, dar si in economia ca intreg cifrele devin prea complicate pentru a fi solutionate bucata cu bucata. Este bine sa avem imaginea de ansamblu.

Despre situatia economica si politica din Italia:

Christopher Pissarides: Guvernul nu poate face prea mult, Europa trebuie sa o coordoneze, sa conclucreze si sa spuna ca aceasta situatie nu mai poate continua. Sunt cinci ani de cand criza a inceput, restul lumii incepe sa o depaseasca, in mod special SUA, iar in Europa se spune ca mai dureaza 2-3 ani. Trebuie ca actiunile sa fie coordonate, o singura tara nu este de ajuns, chiar daca este vorba de Italia. Germania este liderul, tara cheie care ar trebui sa coordoneze si sa puna presiune pentru a o face. Trebuie sa aducem Franta, Italia si Spania impreuna. Daca aceste trei tari ar pune presiune pe Germania pentru a se aseza la masa tratativelor si sa discute ce ar trebui facut, este posibil sa se observe o imbunatatire fata de situatia actuala cand Germania ia decizii de una singura.

Christopher Pissarides este un economist cipriot si profesor la Scoala de Economie din Londra. Aria lui de cercetare include macroeconomia, in special probleme legate de forta de munca, cresterea si politicile economice. In 2010, a primit Premiul Nobel pentru economie impreuna cu Peter A. Diamond si  Dale Mortensen.

 

parteneriat astana CaleaEuropeana.ro va transmite informatii in exclusivitate, in calitate de partner media oficial din Romania al Forumului Economic de la Astana, editia a VI-a.

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ASTANA FORUM

Svyatoslav Anatolyevich Timashev. Collective Nobel Peace Prize 2007 – Honored Scientist of the Russian Federation

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Svyatoslav A. Timashev is a member of the Interstate Council on the issue of “heavy reliability pipelines”, a member of the Scientific Council and the Dissertation Council, the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME), the editorial boards of domestic and foreign journals and a founding member of the International Association for design reliability and safety.

sSvyatoslav A. Timashev, a Russian citizen, was awarded a collective Nobel Peace Prize for developing methods of CO2 sequestration from the earth’s atmosphere and its disposal, together with a group of scientists of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, who together formed the International Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Department of Environmental Protection in 2007.

For his achievements, Svyatoslav Anatolyevich was awarded the VSNTO (All-Soviet Union Council of Technical Society) (1969), the medal “For Valorous Labour” (1970), the Expert Public Education Badge (1984), a COMADEM Magazine prize for the best publication in 2000, and was dubbed Knight of Justice – Commander of the Sovereign Order of the Orthodox Hospitaller Knights of St. John of Jerusalem.

S.A. Timashev shaped a new direction in the theory of reliability of large mechanical systems, solved the problem of optimization of the critical systems operation in multi-level governance class. He is the holder of nine copyright patents and author of more than 250 publications, including 19 monographs.

Svyatoslav Anatolyevich created software systems for the optimal management of the operation of oil and gas pipelines, three generations of industrial electronic systems of vibration protection, vibration diagnostics, tribodiagnostics and monitoring of energy machinery and equipment and is the founder of a new section in the theory of reliability monitoring.

He developed the scientific bases of the theory and a fundamentally new method for optimizing the operation of a complex object by the criteria of reliability and safety, as problems of multilevel governance of stochastic processes of degradation and recovery. These systems are used successfully in the Russian oil and gas industry, aviation, heavy engineering, metallurgy and other industries, as well as in university educational laboratories.

All these works have received wide domestic and international recognition, as evidenced by the election of S.A. Timashev as a member of the RF Academy of Quality Problems, a member of the Washington Academy of Sciences (USA) and the Fulbright Academy of Science and Technology (USA).

On July 26 the laureate S.A. Timashev celebrates his 79th birthday and the 58th anniversary of the start of science teaching career. He was born in Harbin, northeastern China, one of the main transit points for trade with Russia. He graduated with distinction from the Ural Federal University (formerly the Ural Polytechnic Institute).

From 1987 to the present time Professor Timashev has been the head of the Reliability Laboratory of the Engineering Complex Problem Division at IMET UNC AN SSSR.  He is also Director and Academic Advisor at the Science and Engineering Center “Reliability and service life of large systems of machines” at UNC AN SSSR.

 

 

 

 

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ASTANA FORUM

VIDEO Astana Economic Forum. Interview with Eric Maskin: Kazakhstan can be a force for modernization in the Eurasian region

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Interview taken by Razvan Buzatu, from www.caleaeuropeana.ro, with Professor Eric Maskin, PhD, Nobel Laureate for Economics, Adams University Professor at Harvard University.

He is renown at international level for laying the foundation of mechanism design theory. During his career, he contributed to game theory, contract theory, social choice theory, political economy as well as other areas of economics.  

maskin caleaeuropeana

VIDEO:

Razvan Buzatu: Professor Maskin, thank you very much for accepting this discussion for Calea Europeana. First of all: why Astana?

Eric Maskin: Well Astana is now holding one of the big economic forums in the world so it’s a natural place for people who are interested in issues of our time to meet. So, I’m glad to be one of the many participants.

RB: Well, Astana these three or four days is becoming the center of the world, right, and speaking about economics and how the world works at this moment, how do you see Kazakhstan involved in the global economy?

EM: Kazakhstan has an interesting position economically and geographically. It’s close enough to Europe so that it has close ties there, but it’s also close to the Far East and given its pivotal location we can expect great things from Kazakhstan in the future.

RB: Do you think that it can play a regional role in the Eurasian region?

EM: I hope it does. Kazakhstan seems to be forward looking, progressive country and I think it can be a force for modernization in the Eurasian region.

RB: Professor Maskin you’ve designed a well known design mechanism theory, and I was wondering if you can share with us a little bit of your thoughts on how can design mechanism theory, involving also Kazakhstan, can have positive implications on the European Union economy and Eurasian economy.

EM: Well, mechanism design theory is all about how do you create the institutions for aligning incentives. Of course, each country has its own goals which are not necessarily exactly in alignment with other countries’ goals and it is the function of international institutions to reconcile possible conflicts, this could be done through international organizations, through treaties, through political unification, but mechanism design teaches us that is not enough to, say, write a treaty, say, to promote trade, but the treaty has to be written with care to make sure that all the countries who are going to be signing this treaty actually benefit from it and that may involve a series of concessions on both sides, concessions about giving something up but the benefits from conceding is that now you have an international institution which enables you to take more from other countries.

RB: Very interesting, I was talking a little bit earlier with the Deputy Director General of the World Trade Organization, and he said that the new Bali Package that they established in December last year was a negotiation and was a break through, it was basically a new step forward for the WTO in terms of negotiating between India and China and also Cuba and USA, and also USA and India, so they reached to some sort of an agreement, some sort of compromise so that they can benefit economically; in this sense it resembles a lot with the design mechanism theory.

EM: It does in deed and in fact I think that the principles from the theory have now permeated people’s conciseness enough so that when these treaties are hammered out mechanism design theory plays a role.

RB: I will go now to the other side of the world: I believe you know very well what happened in Ukraine at the end of last year and the begging of this year. How do you see mechanism design theory, using mechanism design theory, in establishing a balance in the actors that are involved and are interested in what the path of Ukraine will be in the future.

EM: That’s a very difficult question, if I knew how to solve the problem of Ukraine I would be able to perform miracles so I don’t have any magic bullets for solving the Ukraine problem. All I can say is that we know from theory that the answer to conflicts is not typically the way of isolation and I would be worried if as a result of the tension in the Ukraine, if Russia for example became more isolated from the rest of the world and from Europe in particular to the extent that the countries continue to communicate with one another, continue to trade with one another, continue to cooperate with one another, that’s the way that the international tensions are resolved. Breaking of communication, breaking of trade I’m afraid that’s the risk of heightening tensions even further so I very much hope that the isolation doesn’t occur.

RB: Thank you very much. The theory is that the trade, at the trade level, in the Ukraine nothing has stopped but at the political level there are tensions. How do you see these things going hand in hand because some of them said “listen, it’s a real crisis” and at the trade level they say “we know it’s a crisis but we are still functioning”.

maskin2EM: “still functioning” for the time being. I think that unless they improve politically there is bound to be an economic cost in a longer term. Eventually, there can be lags either way. Economics lead politics or the other way around but not indefinitely, ultimately the two go together.

RB: Can we use the game theory and the Nash equilibrium with your theory, integrated? Is that possible?

EM: Well in fact, my theory, mechanism design, is part of game theory and uses game theoretic tools like Nash equilibrium as part of its analysis.

RB: And do you think they should be used integrated?

EM: Absolutely!

RB: How do you think we can do that?

EM: How can we apply them to…

RB: a certain event around the world, any kind of event?

RB: Use the 3 theories integrated to find a possible solution, not the solution, to an event in the world.

EM: Well, the first thing is to try to make precise what the goals of each of the parties are, but to recognize that there will always be some uncertainty about that. In games theoretic term these are games of incomplete information “I may know my goals, but I will never know your goals completely so I have to recognize that I’m operating in a situation of uncertainty. But game theory has developed tools to study interactions under uncertainty. On top of that, one way of resolving uncertainty is through a mechanism which is just an institution for international interaction. So that I think is the integration that you are calling for. Looking at the initial situation which involves a conflict of interests which is not completely understood because of the incomplete information, but layering on top of that an international mechanism, a treaty, for example or a trade agreement which brings the various parties closer together in agreement in their interests.

RB: One last question if I may? Do you see the European Union as a global actor? Like becoming the United States of Europe?

EM: I hope it will move in that direction. The European Union has successfully integrated some of its economic policy, namely the monetary side, if it can work on its other side of economic policy, namely the fiscal policy, and integrate that, I think it has a chance of having a comparable force with the USA on the global scene, but without that kind of fiscal integration I’m afraid that it will never quite have its act together.

RB: Well professor Maskin, thank you very much for taking the time to talk to us. I’m Razvan Buzatu, for Calea Europeana, from Astana.

 

 

 

 

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ASTANA FORUM

“Journalism education: from theory to practice” – I International Summit of Journalism “G-Global: World of the XXI century”

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In the course of the VII Astana Economic Forum and the II World Anti-Crisis Conference “Eurasian Economic Club of Scientists” Association and “Success K” media agencyorganized a panel session on “Journalism education: from theory to practice” as part of the I International Summit of Journalism “G-Global: World of the XXI century”.

rp_Astana_symbol_-300x224.jpgThe session discussed the issues of how to organize cooperation between journalists and experts in other fields such as IT, statistics, graphic and interactive design in education, and how to transfer this experience in journalism.

The event was attended by Co-Director of National Security Journalism Initiative & Medill School of Journalism, Northwestern University, Timothy McNulty; Director General of the Channel 7, Aziza Shuzeeva; Professor, Head of the Media Communication and history of Kazakhstan Department,Aygul Niyazgulova; Managing editor of Caspian Publishing House, Charles Van Der Liu; Director of the media school at “Kazmedia center”, Dana Rysmuhamedova; Editor-in-chief, “Finanz und Wirtschaft”, Martin Gollmer; Director of Radio “Astana”,Gulmira Karakozov. The session was moderated by the Chairman of the Board RTRC “Kazakhstan” Nurjan Mukhamedzhanova.

Most people think that it is not necessary to get a special education to become a journalist. As in case that no one will be able to do the surgery except a surgeon, no one can know better the professional tricks of historian, economist, lawyer and journalist, – shared an opinion Gulmira Karakozov, Director of Radio “Astana”, in the course of the session. Therefore, I strongly against this majority opinion. In 2005, Kazakhstan had 19 high school faculties, branches and departments that prepared professionals in journalism, and half of them belonged to the philological and historical faculties. I would like to say, the capability of journalists who were trained by linguists or historians, and taught in accordance with tutorials on journalism will not be high. This is a stumbling block in the preparation of professional journalists. Students must be  taught by a person who has experience practicing in the field of journalism, – she stressed.

Recall, a purpose of the I International Summit of Journalism “G-Global: World of the XXI century” was creation of an information platform for interaction of economics, global journalism and latest technologies.

First, in Astana well-known media persons, bright bloggers, leaders and representatives of the world’s largest media holdings, website developers, website editors, newspapers and magazines  editors, scientists, who demonstrate their achievements in the media, media tools and technologies, tried and tested skills in building information business and economic knowledge in the field of journalism brought together.

 

 

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