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World Organization of Creditors: The Debt Bubble Is About To Burst

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WOC mapThe house of cards of the world economies continues to collapse. The problems of Greece and Cyprus are just the beginning of a global trend. Public debt may soon flatten everything in its path like a huge snowball.

 State debts are continuing to grow and, according to the latest estimates, it is becoming more and more difficult for countries not only to decrease the debt, but even to stabilize it. The preliminary results for 2012 show that the total debt of all countries has exceeded $55 trillion. The largest part (75%) is accounted for by only seven developed economies, the G7 countries. During the previous year they not only failed to improve the situation, but increased their debts by 5%. The total indebtedness of developed countries has grown by 12%, or 110% of total GDP.

The situation is not as critical in developing countries: During 2012, the total public debt grew by 1%, or 34% of GDP. The greatest increase was in the countries of the Middle East and Northern Africa, where public debts increased by 5%. In other regions the increase was 1-2% of the previous year’s level.

Public debt of key regions

Region

 Public debt, billion US dollars, 2012

Public debt, billion US dollars, 2012

Change

Debt-to-GDP ratio 2012

Developed countries

46,539

41,715

12%

110%

G7

42,261

40,398

5%

129%

European Union

14,316

14,458

-1%

89%

Developing countries

9,329

9,234

1%

34%

Asia

4,114

4,017

2%

32%

Latin America and the Caribbean Islands

2,812

2,817

0%

49%

The Middle East and Northern Africa

798

757

5%

27%

Commonwealth of Independent States

362

357

1%

14%

Sources:WOC, IMF, CIA

 

Debt Leaders Are Still the Same

No substantial changes have occurred in the leaders with respect to public debt. The first two places in the rating are held by the USA and Japan, with $16 and $14 trillion, respectively. Thus more than a half of the world sovereign debt is accounted for by two countries. They are followed by countries the public debt of which is $1-3 trillion. After Japan, where government liabilities are almost three times domestic GDP, the hardest situation is in Italy. At the end of 2012, Italy’s sovereign debt to GDP ratio was 126%. However, some experts note that the situation there is more stable than that of its Southern European neighbors, since the government bonds have long maturities and are owned mostly by domestic investors.

The largest percentage-based increase of the public debt among the countries studied was in Kazakhstan, where the debt increased by more than a third (+32%), moving that country to 58th place in volume of public debt. The greatest increase in financial liabilities among developed countries was in Spain and Australia, with indebtedness growing by 23% and 19%, respectively, in 2012.

China is continuing to reduce its public debt, although very slowly. At the end of 2012, its indebtedness had decreased by 6% over the previous year, while the government had paid off another 5% of its liabilities. The public debt of Greece also decreased by 8%, which can be explained by the fact that the creditors wrote it down in 2012. Hungary’s financial liabilities decreased by 15%, giving it 42nd place in the general rating.

Rating of countries by size of public debt

Place in 2012

Place in 2011

Country

Public debt, billion US dollars, 2012

Public debt, billion US dollars, 2011

Change

Debt-to-GDP ratio 2012

1

1

USA

16,730.5

15,536.3

8%

107%

2

2

Japan

14,148.9

13,476.9

5%

237%

3

3

Germany

2,888.7

2,881.5

0.3%

83%

4

4

Italy

2,611.2

2,640.7

-1%

126%

5

5

France

2,440.0

2,387.9

2%

90%

6

6

Great Britain

2,175.1

1,977.4

10%

89%

7

7

China

1,770.9

1,886.1

-6%

22%

8

9

Canada

1,579.3

1,483.8

6%

88%

9

8

Brazil

1,569.7

1,619.0

-3%

64%

10

11

Spain

1,267.7

1,032.3

23%

91%

11

10

India

1,202.6

1,123.0

7%

68%

12

12

Netherlands

547.0

547.6

-0.1%

68%

13

13

Mexico

520.3

506.3

3%

43%

14

14

Belgium

492.0

502.1

-2%

99%

15

15

Greece

462.9

501.3

-8%

171%

26

25

Russia

222.9

221.3

1%

11%

Sources:WOC, IMF, CIA

 

Everyone Shares the Debt

Japan is still at the top of the list in public debt per capita: 1more than $110,000 for every resident. The consequences of the tsunami and the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident will have a negative impact on the economy of the Land of the Rising Sun for a rather long time to come. Japan is followed by Ireland ($53,900 per resident), and Singapore and the United States have practically caught up with it. In these countries, the debt per capita is $53,000. At the same time, the pressure on residents of Qatar has considerably increased: Every resident accounts for more than $37,000, which is 19% more than last year.

In Russia as a whole, the public debt is stable. At the end of 2012, it had increased by 1% year-on-year, and does not exceed 11% of GDP. The indebtedness per capita is a little more than $1,500.

Rating by public debt per capita

Place

Country

Public debt per  resident, US dollars, 2012

Public debt per  resident, US dollars, 2011

Change

1

Japan

11,0875.1

105,373.8

5.2%

2

Ireland

53,992.8

50,585.1

6.7%

3

Singapore

53,435.9

52,994.6

0.8%

4

USA

53,229.0

49,804.4

6.9%

5

Norway

49,438.7

48,246.3

2.5%

6

Canada

45,347.6

43,086.6

5.2%

7

Belgium

44,549.8

45,854.0

-2.8%

8

Italy

42,879.6

43,557.5

-1.6%

9

Greece

41,313.1

44,783.4

-7.7%

10

France

38,474.8

37,827.0

1.7%

11

Qatar

37,506.5

31,793.9

18%

12

Switzerland

36,240.8

37,446.2

-3.2%

13

Austria

36,035.6

35,992.4

0.1%

14

Germany

35,323.3

35,234.9

0.3%

15

Great Britain

34,490.5

31,565.3

9.3%

47

Russia

1,570.8

1,554.1

1.1%

51

China

1308.1

1399.8

-6.6%

Sources:WOC, IMF, CIA

 

Reserves Won’t Save Us

When it comes to international reserves, China can boast the most impressive “safety cushion.” During the last year the country has increased its currency reserves to $3.5 trillion, which is three times the public debt. Second place is held by Japan, with $1.3 trillion, although that is enough to cover only 10% of the public debt. Third place was firmly gained by Saudi Arabia, which continues increasing its reserves. Russia, which is rated fourth, could soon be “pushed out” by the USA, which is continuing to increase its reserve funds. Nevertheless, it should be noted that in case of emergency, most countries won’t have enough in their “piggy banks” to cover all their debts.

Pessimism Is Becoming Reality

Considering the steadily growing pressure, more and more often we hear forecasts of the upcoming bursting of “debt bubbles.” The countries that are pressured by debt can’t find a way to pay their obligations and are being forced to borrow even more money to pay interest on their current loans. For both the majority of developed economies and countries where the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 60-70%, it looks like the point of no return has already been passed. Sooner or later they will share the fate of Greece and Cyprus. But in this case, there will be no one to borrow the “rescue” money from.

However, based on the predicted growth of public debt compared to GDP, some reduction of this figure is expected in the second half of this decade. But the optimists of the IMF are still betting on increased GDP, instead of the real reduction of public indebtedness.

Experts are increasingly tending towards the worst case scenario, stating that soon we are likely to observe a crisis of state finances, the extent and consequences of which will far surpass the financial crises of previous years.

Full report > Public Debt Research WOC June 2013

ENGLISH

Op-Ed | German Foreign Minister marks 20 years since EU’s biggest enlargement: The generations before us created a Europe of freedom. Our task is defending Europe

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© Official Photo (Courtesy by German Embassy to Romania)

Annalena Baerbock, German Federal Minister for Foreign Affairs

With the European anthem ringing in their ears and fireworks lighting up the night sky, complete strangers embraced each other. I joined hundreds of people back then, on 1 May 2004, on the Oder bridge between Frankfurt in eastern Germany and Słubice in western Poland in celebrating this special European moment. East and West were united in the European Union at long last. Around 75 million people in Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia and Cyprus became part of the EU family on that night. Our neighbours in Bulgaria, Romania and Croatia also joined them later on.

It was the courageous responsibility and vision of the people in the accession countries – from the Baltic region to the Mediterranean Sea – that made this great celebration possible back then. They had embarked upon the long and difficult road of reform and harmonisation with determination.

For me as Germany’s Foreign Minister, 1 May reminds us that each generation has its task. The generations of our parents and grandparents recognised after the Second World War that reconciliation is the basis for a European community of peace. We Germans must never forget that especially we, who brought war and destruction to so many people, were thus able to find the path to peace and friendship. The generations before us created a European Union of freedom – for living, working and doing business – from the Atlantic up to the border with Russia.

The generation of the major round of enlargement had to have the courage back then not to be deterred by pushbacks or populist slogans. Like in Germany, where in times of high unemployment the fear of the “Polish plumber” was stoked. The job of politicians, however, is, as former Federal President Walter Scheel once put it, “to do the right thing and make it popular”, as opposed to giving in to moods and letting ourselves be driven by them. If social media had already existed at that time, then I wonder whether the debate would have perhaps had a different conclusion. But nothing hopeful can grow from hatred, populism or naysayers.

Our generation now faces the task of defending and strengthening the peace and freedom project that is Europe, even though this takes incredible strength. After all, Putin’s war of aggression against Ukraine is a most brutal reminder that our peace, freedom and prosperity in Europe cannot be taken for granted. What guided the generations before us in building our united Europe is what we also need today to protect our Europe, namely courageous responsibility and vision.

As the European Union, we are defending our values and our security together with friends and allies and are standing firmly by Ukraine’s side – for as long as it takes. By the side of a country that, for over two years now, has made the very greatest sacrifices for a future in freedom and democracy – and which is now itself taking big strides towards EU accession.

At the latest since Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, we know that today the expansion of our EU is a geopolitical necessity, too. Political and geographical “grey zones” in the Balkans or in the east of the EU are highly dangerous. We cannot afford such grey zones as for Putin they are an invitation to interfere and destabilise.

The European Union stands for freedom, democracy and the rule of law. Just like 20 years ago, once again today millions of Europeans see an opportunity and a promise in becoming EU citizens. And we cannot afford once again to make an entire generation sit in the EU’s waiting room, as in the countries of the Western Balkans. We must not pass up the opportunity to make our Union bigger and stronger – and therefore also more secure. Our Union of peace and freedom is open for new members.

However, in order for the accession of further countries to the Union to be successful, we must ensure that the EU remains capable of taking action both internally and externally. We will continue to develop our EU with all due resolve to this end. Even if we have intense debates about how time and again – as is to be expected in a big family. The wealth of experience of the EU members that have joined the Union since 2004, countries that successfully mastered a long transformation process, is particularly valuable here.

In order for our Union of freedom to accomplish this task for our generation, we must reform it. To my mind, this includes reducing the scope for vetoes in the Council. We must remain capable of action also in a future Union potentially numbering over 35 members. This includes reaching decisions more often with a large majority as opposed to achieving unanimity. Even if this means that Germany – like any other member state – can also be outvoted. We must address enlargement and reform with determination.

Showing courageous responsibility means today that we must make our European Union fit to take in new countries already in this decade. So that people can embrace each other once again, with the European anthem ringing in their ears, united in our growing European family.

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ANPC Romania launched investigations into potential unfair commercial practices of online shopping platforms Temu and Shein

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© European Union, 2022/ Source: EC - Audiovisual Service

The National Authority for Consumer Protection (ANPC) is currently carrying out an action to check shopping sites and apps that operate as an online marketplace, Temu and Shein, ANPC informs in a press release.

“The action focuses on possible unfair commercial practices of merchants, in relation to consumers, likely to distort, essentially, their economic behavior, namely potential violations of horizontal legislation on product safety and consumer protection (unauthentic discounts) and aggressive practices – manipulative interfaces (dark patterns), pressure-selling, rewarding the involvement of a person with a product or service with a prize (gamification), but also other aspects (for example, related to product safety),” the institution’s statement reads.

In this context, the ANPC advises consumers who buy online from these sites to carefully inform themselves, before purchasing a product, about its characteristics, prices displayed, delivery costs, information about the trader or the available payment methods.

Before concluding the purchase, consumers should check whether the trader’s website provides correct and complete information on: his identification details (name, postal and e-mail address, telephone number, company registration number, tax registration number, etc.); the essential characteristics of the product; the price including all taxes; delivery charges, if applicable; payment and delivery terms; the period of validity of the offer or price; the existence and the exercise of the right of unilateral termination of the contract.

“The ANPC recommends that if you encounter a problem when shopping online, you should try to resolve it directly with the economic operator by amicable means. If this does not work, you can contact the Alternative Dispute Resolution Directorate of the ANPC https://anpc.ro/ce-este-sal/, in the case of economic operators with registered offices in Romania. If the economic operator has its head office in another European country, you can contact the European Consumer Centre in Romania https://eccromania.ro/, which helps you free of charge when you have a consumer protection problem with a product or service purchased in another European country, informs you free of charge about your rights when travelling in another European country and offers you free support if you have a complaint against your economic operator in order to resolve the problem. If no other means of redress is possible, you can submit a complaint by going to https://sesizari.anpc.ro/, in the case of economic operators with registered offices in Romania”, the Consumer Protection press release points out.

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Romanian Space Agency and University Politehnica of Bucharest, joint workshop dedicated to identifying innovative solutions and facilitating partnerships between public and private actors in the fields of cybersecurity and space

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© ROSA

The Romanian Space Agency (ROSA) and the National University for Science and Technology Politehnica Bucharest, with the support of the EU Cybersecurity Competence Centre (ECCC), organised on Wednesday, 20 March, a workshop on “Cybersecurity and Advanced Space Technologies”, to explore innovative solutions and to stimulate strategic actions, as well as to facilitate the forging of partnerships between public and private actors in the fields of cybersecurity and space.

The workshop hosted by the National University for Science and Technology Politehnica Bucharest was held in a hybrid format, with the participation of representatives from academia, ROSA and ECCC, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Ministry of National Defence, the National Cyber Security Directorate, but also from the private sector, with companies such as certSIGN, Thales, CS Group Romania, Eviden or AROBS, which are active in the digital transformation, big data, encryption, software solutions development, electronics and cybersecurity markets.

The discussions, open to stakeholders from the industry, research sphere, academia and students of the National University for Science and Technology Politehnica Bucharest, focused on current trends in advanced space technologies, in particular on redefining and strategically strengthening the cyber resilience of critical infrastructures and services in space taking into account lessons learned from large-scale incidents on Earth; the role of technological innovation in preventing and countering cyber risks and threats, as well as managing future challenges and exploiting opportunities to create robust defence mechanisms.

Also, Romanian companies with a tradition in the IT&C field highlighted tangible results achieved for the development and innovation of the field and for the extension of technological solutions to the space domain, as well as the partnerships established with public and private stakeholders, both at national and European level, aimed at researching and developing innovative technological solutions for civil and military applications.

Finally, discussions also focused on the collaboration between the cybersecurity and space domains, with an emphasis on identifying the most appropriate pathways for cooperation between the two industries to address common cyber risks and challenges, e.g. based on a risk assessment model or through a cyber security operations centre serving entities in a common administrative area.

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