The top priority of a second Donald Trump administration in the White House or an administration led by Joe Biden will be to “fix America at home” so that the United States continues to have the capacity to play an active role as a global leader, and in this context, the Strategic Partnership with Romania, cooperation within NATO and formats such as the Three Seas Initiative will play an important role, said Damon Wilson, executive Vice President of the prestigious American think tank Atlantic Council, in an exclusively interview to CaleaEuropeană.ro.
Speaking for CaleaEuropeană.ro on the sidelines of the ninth edition of Bucharest Forum, the most important geostrategic event in the Black Sea region, the American expert addressed the issue of global disorder and what comes after the US elections on November 3, the future of transatlantic relations on EU-US dimension, NATO 2030 and the special relationship between the United States and Eastern Europe. Damon Wilson also said that National Defense Minister Nicolae Ciuca’s visit to Washington shows that Romania and the US have a strong strategic partnership that extends beyond the tumultuous politics arenas of Bucharest or Washington DC and stressed that “the first line of freedom” is on the eastern flank of which Romania is a part.
Robert Lupițu: Mr. Damon Wilson, thank you so much for accepting the invitation and it’s an honor for us at CaleaEuropeană.ro to have an interview with you on the sidelines of the Bucharest Forum, the most important and geostrategic event in the Black Sea region, taking place this year for the ninth year in a row in a special context. It will be a seven days marathon of online debates and you will be one of the speakers at the Forum. Welcome on CaleaEuropeană.ro!
Damon Wilson: Thank you, Robert. It is such a pleasure to be with you and with all of your viewers. I’m really looking forward to participating the debates, the Bucharest Forum has become an important forum as you say for spotlighting the issues around the Black Sea region, and really looking forward to our conversation today, Romania is indeed as your publication says, as pursued the European path and that’s fantastic. Thank you.
Robert Lupițu: I would like for the first question to focus on the idea of the world disorder and what comes after the US elections. We already had the first political confrontation between President Trump and his contender, former Vice President Biden, but we had almost no wording in the debate about geopolitical shifts the world reshuffle or the great power competition that has put on hold or maybe has dismantled the liberal order. How will the US global role look under a second Trump administration and how it will look like if we will have a Biden administration?
Damon Wilson: We are in the midst of a very heated presidential elections campaign and our debate last week was not exactly a high point in the effective demonstration of American democracy. We are in the midst of a big debate in my country and one of the strengths in this country is democracy, is the fact that we have the ability to self-correct. So, we have two candidates that are offering a very different visions for their role in the world. Despite the fact that the debate itself didn’t have a tremendous amount of conversation about foreign policy, I believe it is really important for the US role in the world.
After our election, the priority of a president Biden or a re-elected president Trump it will be to help fix ourselves at home so that we have the capacity and the ability to play an active leadership role on the world stage. And that means things like make sure of democracy actually works and that it can be effective. Thinking about the infrastructure investments we need to compete in the 21st Century, whether it’s technology or more traditionally road and bridges infrastructure. So, I think you will see that kind of priority at the top. How to actually to fix some things at home so that we have the ability to play our role internationally.
Robert Lupițu: A re-healing America approach?
Damon Wilson: It is feeling like we are repairing our country, both in the wake of a economy that suffered damages from the pandemic, anti-racist protests. The United States needs to come together and to figure out how to strengthen itself at home, but that very much relates to the global agenda. Part of what we are dealing with is the United States trying to figure a new model for its role in the world for the US leadership in the world and in a world that has dramatically changed and the United States is adjusting to that.
Robert Lupițu: We had some bullet point approaches from some of America’s European partners that the United States has chosen to no longer be the world’s policeman. So, is the US adapting to a changing world or the US is trying to change the rules because in the previous state of the world affairs it was being challenged or losing dominance to a resurgent Russia and to an unpredictable China? You probably know what the Foreign Minister of Germany Heiko Maas said that we should not take for granted a Biden administration that will change things in the way the transatlantic relations are heading to.
Damon Wilson: You will see very different approaches in tones depending whether President Trump is re-elected or Vice President Biden wins. You have seen an America First approach from President Trump that puts pressure on many of our allies and traditional partnerships. You have heard pretty consistently from Vice President Biden a desire to recommit and to elevate the role of America’s alliances and partnerships. But I think there is truth to what you have seen from President Obama to President Trump, that the American people don’t necessarily want to be the world’s policeman. And frankly much of the world doesn’t need or want the US as a policeman.
But, an active and constructively engaged America in the world is absolutely critical to solving global scale challenges.
The United States understands this isn’t the past. We don’t go be back to a time where we were 45% of global GDP. But together, North America and Europe still are over 40% of the world’s GDP. There is going to be harkening to think about how do we engage in a world in which we don’t assume all the burden, we do not play the role of world’s policeman, but we can be a more catalytic actor leveraging the power and influence of our partners and allies on big issues like to deal with a aggressive Russia and a rising China, who are playing by very different rules. Free societies will going to have to work together to figure out how to manage that challenge. It’s gonna take a more equal voice and burden sharing across the Atlantic that I think the Europeans want and the Americans will welcome.
Robert Lupițu: With this approach coming from the US, is there a risk of leaving a vacuum in the world powers arena?
Damon Wilson: There is a risk of a vacuum (…) But we are learning that we do not want to make a 21st Century version of the mistake that my country made after World War I. Retrenchment, isolationism and coming home only led to conflict last century. This is a very different time. We have learned that we have to strike the right balance. A new form of American engagement in the world that does not fall to the silent songs of isolationism and retrenchment, but as yet a more sustainable, both politically and fiscal role for the United States in the world in the absence of that you’re absolutely right that we could run the risk of vacuums and when you see a vacuum whether it’s in Syria or Libya, or the eastern Mediterranean, as David Ignatius wrote in The Washington Post just this week. When you see that kind of vacuum mischief thrives, and that’s where the United States needs to be actively engaged in the world. Fixing itself at home first settling on a new model for constructive leadership in the world that leverages and works with allies and partners, but then third really thinking strategically ambitious about how do we adapt, how do we revitalize, and how do we defend a rules based order that recognizes that we have so much in common with free societies, but we do have to figure out how to actually live on this planet in a way that doesn’t lead to war with a rising China. That’s a pretty big task that we’re facing. And I think that’s what our country is grappling with if we can get through the noise of our political election.
Robert Lupițu: But I do think that, as you mentioned China, is a “Second Cold War” term or a Cold war between China and the US overrated?
Damon Wilson: So we’re going to have an incredible era of competition with China, no doubt. But I think the analogy of a Cold War in some respects is right in terms of the scale of the challenge that we’re facing on our global terms, but on the other hand it’s an, it’s not the right analogy because the, the nature of it is so different, our societies our economies are intertwined.
While there will be some decoupling and sensitive economic areas as we see, technology and 5g communications and things like that.
We’re going to have to figure out how to operate in a way that understands we are in a strategic competition with China and the model that it presents of authoritarian authoritarian state led corrupt capitalism. And that, of open markets, open societies, free peoples. And that’s a real generational struggle for our time. But we also realize that there’s going to be an element of cooperation, whether it is economic prosperity, or whether it is dealing with the challenge of climate that we are going to have to find some modicum of a way to operate and work together on some of these issues where we might be able to find some degree of common interest, it will not be easy, it will be a generational task, but I think the most important thing is that the United States, Europe, our NATO allies the European Union, the United Kingdom, but also our democratic allies in Asia, Australia, Japan, South Korea, India, that we find a way to work together on this generational struggle of how we both compete and cooperate with a communist China.
Robert Lupițu: Thank you for setting the scene on how the US will see its role in the world in the coming years. And you mentioned the transatlantic Alliance, the enduring friendship between the United States and in Europe. The set of challenges on the transatlantic relations is huge. And I cannot think that in recent years during the Trump administration, President Trump has not visited, except Paris Warsaw and Brussels for NATO summits, none of the EU capitals. Do you think that this transatlantic turmoil is here to stay? Or, we can fix this, this relationship, let’s say, starting from, from now or from January 20 regardless who will live in the White House? Do you think that resilience will be a key factor that can bridge the two shores of the North Atlantic?
Damon Wilson: Those are, that’s a complex question with different parts but let me just be simple, the transatlantic relationship is absolutely critical to the success of the United States of our European friends and our free peoples globally, it needs to be the partnership of first resort. I’m a passionate believer in that, and I’m, I’m quite concerned about how the Trump administration has handled sort of the tone and tenor of the relationship with our European friends and allies. You are right that in many areas we have actually quite strong cooperation, whether it’s in Belarus today, whether it’s been in bolstering bolstering the eastern flank of NATO alliance including around the Black Sea, we’ve made actually concrete progress despite the political tensions and turmoil at the political level. That’s it. I think there is much more we can do and I am very bullish about the fact that a more growing stronger and more confident European Union is, is, is a critical partner of the United States, that NATO will remain a bedrock of how we need to engage in the world. And I’m really confident about the future of this. It’s got to be on different terms on new terms and more respectful footing. But, you mentioned the theme of resilience, and I think if you back up and if I think about what resilience means to me. It really is the resilience of our societies in the face of challenges, whether it’s technology or authoritarian state led capitalism, and it is the fact that we are vibrant resilient societies where we can identify our failings and shortcomings we self correct we improve. This is provides for the resilience and the durability of free institutions of our democracies of countries in Europe, the United Kingdom, the United States. That’s why I’m confident over the long term, but we’ve got to get our act together. We’ve got to work together and common cause where we share overlapping interests underpinned by common values. And I think there’s really room for that for us to go on offense, with a more coordinated transatlantic approach, whether it’s on a discrete issue like Belarus, or a systemic issue about how to deal with Moscow and Beijing.
Robert Lupițu: How does Washington see, politically but also in terms of strategic thinking, the concepts of EU strategic autonomy, European serenity, but also some ideas like the dawns of the Asian century as High Representative Borrell said it a few months ago?
Damon Wilson: Look, I mean I think there’s some, some real developments here part of it we want to work with our allies and partners as they present themselves and so the European Union is going through its continuing evolution where the United Kingdom is going through its separation. We’re going to work with you on the terms that you have come to us in that sense. We would love to see a stronger, more confident European Union, would I recoil about as a sense of strategic autonomy that just means to that you need to hedge against the United States to hedge to position Europe sometime and someplace between the United States and China because that, that seems really misplaced. That to me. The issue is how can Europe act in its interest consistent with its values on the geopolitical stage where big stakes are out there. We want a European Union that can be an actor and then can take decisive action. And when we can do that in partnership we can be even more effective if Canada, the UK, Australia and the European Union are acting together on issues that’s going to be good for the interests of free peoples globally. And so what I think we want to avoid is a sense that a European Union needs to hedge between China and the states and, and to be strategically autonomous from the US, we are allies, we are permanent allies. We need to be more effective about how we work together to solve big problems the United States didn’t needs to be more respectful of that relationship with with Europe, and we would like to see a European Union that can act more decisively on these issues. And so I think that’s part of what we’re talking about. And if this Commission can help can continue to work with the European Union members to give it more strategic coherence more ability to act decisively. Fantastic. But the United States is going to take. We’re going to work with European Union members we’re going to work with capitals we’re going to work with NATO allies. We’re going to work with the European Union as a whole, we’re going to work in new ways with the United Kingdom. We can manage that. But the point is is that we need to be more aligned on the strategic issues that we face coming from authoritarian regimes in Russia and China and we need to be in this this effort together.
Robert Lupițu: It’s especially the call that Secretary Pompeo has raised on his visits in Eastern Europe. Europe somehow has responded to this call, since the von der Leyen Commission has described itself as a geopolitical Commission. When it regards to NATO we see an alliance that is able and has proven to be an agile body that resists to sudden changes. We have frictions between Germany and the US. We have some rhetorical political dispute between France and Turkey, which is very personalized between President Macron and President Erdogan, we had the cerebral death statement of President Macron. In fact, when we talk about NATO 2030, we are looking to a new strategic concept? How will it will it look like?
Damon Wilson: One of the things that I think it’s so beautiful about this alliance is that it’s been such a successful Alliance, because it’s based on a sense of simplicity, that this is a coming together of free nations to protect the way of life, the democratic way of life of their people, and that it has an enduring adaptability, because it is for that it is for the ability of free nations and free people to be able to determine their own destiny and future by standing together. I think it’s quite beautiful. But it’s also provided for NATO that adaptability remarkably so to stand up to the assault of communism during the Cold War, to become operational to help bring peace and the Balkans to play its part in Afghanistan to develop partnership tools that can help provide more cooperative security arrangements with other partners globally. I think NATO has a bright future as a strong alliance, but also as an alliance that sets the democratic standards and norms for all democracies globally, that NATO has the ability to be at the center of this network of democratic nations and alliances, to help us be able to operate the same operating system, if you will be. And so I’m pretty confident that even as NATO deals with the political tensions of today which are real.
As you said between the US and Germany, France and Turkey. To be fair, that’s not an unusual development and the NATO’s history is that the beauty of free nations and free politicians is, is that we have this but we’ve got to work hard to actually have a NATO and a 2030 that has a common sense of destiny a common sense of purpose. And I think that really does need to be anchored around being an alliance that is at the heart of protecting a democratic way of life for its people, the freedom of its nations in the face of challenges whether it comes from systemic issues like climate change or aggressive Russian issue that regime that challenges its neighbors or Chinese model that could really undermine the way we operate on the world stage. And I think that thinking about NATO 2030 is how do we continue to play on this simple elegance of the Washington Treaty to make sure that it’s as relevant in the 21st Century as it was in the past.
Robert Lupițu: I have to say that back in February at the Munich Security Conference, as a journalist I saw a unified US – Eastern Europe approach with common ideals and common platforms: NATO, The Three Seas Initiative, the posture and the vision against an aggressive Russia and also a challenging China. And I want to ask you, is the future core of the transatlantic Alliance moving on a more strengthened cooperation between the US and Eastern Europe because you mentioned something very interesting earlier that US will continue to adapt and cooperate with European Union, both with the Commission, with national capitals, with the United Kingdom and so on?
Damon Wilson: Look, I’m a big champion of the fact that we do have a special relationship with Central and Eastern European allies. These were the captive nations during the Cold War, part of the Warsaw Pact subjugated inside the Soviet Union in some cases, and to see whether it’s Romania or the Baltic States as American allies today as NATO allies today is just tremendous. And so, I think there really is a special relationship forged through that historic transformation, but at the same time the frontline of freedom today is on your flank. It is just across the Black Sea as you look at what’s happening in Crimea and Donbas. As you look even further, as we see what’s happening on the Lithuanian border and Polish border in Belarus, as we see the struggle inside Ukraine for its future this is the frontier of freedom today. And so we have such a common interest in making sure that first our allies are protected. That defense is strong in the Black Sea region in the Baltic region, and Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Romania, we need to make sure that there’s just no question about your security or sovereignty or independence and I think that’s the case. But we’ve also got to be just as energetic and how we came together to figure out how to support your aspirations before Romania became a member. But today Romania can work with its neighbors and with us to support the aspiration of your neighbors that’s the big strategic play. And so we do have a special relationship that will be close. It is the whole concept of the Three Seas Initiative to step up American investment and engagement in a region to develop the connectors across transportation and energy and telecommunications from north-south to make this region more resilient to the kind of manipulation that we’re seeing whether it’s coming from Chinese investments with strings attached. Or Russian dark money and illicit financing. And so, this is part of an intentional effort to bolster the eastern flank of the Alliance, but that succeeds, as Romania as the Baltic states are strong members of NATO and strong good members of the European Union, that is mutually reinforcing. It is a fool’s errand to think that is a choice or that it’s one or the other, we’re not worried about, you know, EU – NATO differences we’re worried about the challenge across coming from Russia or coming from illicit finance, and we want to see our partnerships with with countries like Romania, take place in the context, we’ve got a great strategic partnership with Romania it’s extraordinary the level of bilateral security cooperation between our countries. We’re proud of that. But it’s so healthy in part because it’s anchored inside a healthy Romanian role that Romania plays within NATO and the European Union, and that we have a common agenda, whether it is helping to finish a Europe whole and free in the Western Balkans, to help embed Serbia in Europe and the strategic West so that Romania’s neighbor is in a same strategic places it is, and having a coherent approach to projecting security across the Black Sea, where we see great dangers today. And that works because we have a strong bilateral relationship, but we also have it, because it’s inside Romania’s role that plays a healthy role inside NATO and the European Union. That is mutually reinforcing.
Robert Lupițu: Today we learned that Romanians Defense Minister Mr Nicolae Ciucă a will pay a visit to Washington DC at the invitation of Defense Secretary Esper. We are in deep knowledge of the context of this visit. We had three American generals here in Romania in August in September. We also had the announcement of the withdrawal of troops from Germany and the part of them ready to be deployed in other parts of Europe. What outcome can we expect from this visit and from this strategic dialogue between the two strategic partners?
Damon Wilson: Well, we’re delighted that Minister Ciucă is coming to Washington. I think one thing that’s clear is that regardless of, of our elections or your elections we always expect to have an extraordinarily close US-Romanian military relationship. We have a strong strategic partnership that spans your tumultuous politics and it spans our tumultuous politics. And that’s the beauty of the relationship, that’s the beauty of the Alliance we have, we have extraordinarily good cooperation both with the work that we do and bolstering security in the Black Sea region. The use of military facilities in Romania itself, Romania playing a key role in the missile defense structure for, for our NATO Alliance, and a lot of continuing mil to mil and security cooperation on a bilateral basis. So we look forward to welcoming Minister Ciucă to Washington, we hope to welcome him to the Atlantic Council where we’ve had a long going set of exchanges with Romanian defense leaders and this is part of that train. And so I think I’d see this as part of the the close fabric of our strategic partnership within the NATO alliance. We’ve got opportunities to continue to grow:the training, the military cooperation programs, the common procurement programs the replacement of legacy equipment, and the repent Romanian armed forces, a more stronger set of intelligence sharing arrangements, and a greater way for the United States and Romania to help bolster all of Europe security by continuing to build out our missile defenses, as well as using Romania as a way to help bolster our maritime security and surveillance of what is actually happening in the Black Sea region. The biggest change in the military forces in Europe in recent years has been because of Crimea, right there on the in the middle of the Black Sea. Romania knows that better than anyone else and so we need this frequent exchange, frequent consultations, to ensure that we’re aware, and that we’ve got a common approach to that.
Robert Lupițu: It’s also interesting that this visit it will happen in the context that recently Romania has approved its White Charter on Defense and the implementation plan of its National Strategy for defense where the events in Crimea, the illegal annexation and the military buildup that Russia is doing there are in the main category of risks, vulnerabilities and threats. Thank you very much for the interview and for this very insightful and strategic interview and conversation, and we’re looking forward to have you on board, whenever we have the occasion.
Damon Wilson: Thank you, Robert. The only. I just want to close with a word that you know our alliance our partnership with Romania has just been tremendous and to see how far Romania has come in building the relationship with the United States and building its profile, its role within the NATO alliance as a bulwark of security in Southeast Europe, and as a constructive actor inside the European Union, but we also have a very common agenda, when you look to your West at the Western Balkans and the unfinished business there. When you look north to Moldova, especially, but also to Ukraine across the, the Black Sea to Georgia’s aspirations to a hot war of Armenia and Azerbaijan right now to uncertainty in Turkey, Romania is in a volatile region, and yet it provides an incredible base of stability and security despite its own volatile politics. And I think that’s a little bit of what speaks to the resilience strategy that we want to see play out of the Bucharest Forum that some of these, some of the turmoil we have within our democracies, is the resilience of our societies that is how we change just how our people control our governments and the electorate’s push for their views.
Robert Lupițu: Thank you very much. We are looking forward to this edition of the Bucharest Forum.
